On the flip side, you can find the exact same pattern as a bearish reversal at the top of an uptrend. According to IG.com, the Spinning Top is known most often as a continuation pattern. The concept being similar to other indecision candles in a trending environment. However, we are surprised when the price begins to reverse, culminating in a bullish Dragonfly Doji pattern. If the close is above the open, the candle is coloured white or green. The tails or thin lines above and below the body of the candle mark the high price and low price recorded during the time period of the candle. Each candlestick chart pattern says something about the strength of the buyers and sellers within this timeframe. A long green daily candlestick may indicate that the buyers were strong that day, whereas a long red candle may indicate that sellers were strong. A green doji candle also indicates indecision or a potential reversal in price direction. However, this also means that it might not appear as frequently as the hammer pattern. The bullish dragonfly doji has the same shape as the bearish version, but the difference stands within the context of the current trend. Furthermore, this pattern can be combined with other technical analysis patterns like RSI divergence to help confirm a potential change in trend to the upside. Besides position sizing and stop-loss placement, another important aspect of risk management is setting profit targets. Doji: Bullish or Bearish? + Spinning Top, & Harami Indecision Candles Doji candles can appear before the continuation and reversal of a trend. A Dragonfly Doji is a type of candlestick pattern that can signal a potential reversal in price to the downside or upside, depending on past price action. The price increases significantly at the start of a new trading period before falling. Reversals are different from continuation patterns, and you’ll need to understand both in trading. The higher volume, the generally better comfort you can have with a pattern’s formation. The signal is confirmed if the candle following the dragonfly rises, closing above the close of the dragonfly. The strong bullish candle that followed served as a confirmation of the dragonfly doji’s reversal signal, validating the buyers’ newfound dominance in the market. And if you’re a long-term trader or position trader, you might analyze monthly or weekly charts to spot the dragonfly doji pattern. These charts reflect larger trend reversals, making them suitable for holding positions over several months to years. On the flip side, if you’re an intermediate-term or swing trader, you might look for dragonfly doji patterns on 4-hourly and daily charts. Dragonfly and Other Patterns It is essential to perform a comprehensive analysis and implement robust risk management strategies before making any trades. Once you are confident in your analysis, consider opening an FXOpen account to take advantage of spreads as tight as 0.0 pips and commissions starting at just $1.50. While the dragonfly doji is a valuable candlestick formation for traders, it is not without its limitations. Recognising these constraints can help them understand how to use it most effectively. If you haven’t checked out our other resources be sure to do so, you’ll find a really nice candlestick pattern cheat sheet… Generally speaking, doji candlesticks represent reversals or continuation patterns in a trend. Yes, the Dragonfly Doji can be used in both short-term and long-term trading. They mostly occur over one period and can therefore only indicate what the price may do in the short-term, rather than helping to signal long-term changes in trends. Some examples of signals Dragonflies can give during downtrends would be: Traders can use this as a confirmation signal to enter long positions, anticipating a breakout in the direction indicated by the pattern. When combining this strategy with the Dragonfly Doji pattern, traders may use the pattern to confirm a bullish reversal. For example, after a bullish crossover of moving averages, the appearance of a Dragonfly Doji pattern can confirm a potential shift towards an uptrend, strengthening the bullish signal. However, as the bulls lose steam, bear regain some control into the close of the candle with selling pressure. Spotting the dragonfly doji near other support levels or using it in conjunction with other indicators improves its reliability. Various trading strategies can be employed when trading the dragonfly doji, depending on the trader’s objectives and risk tolerance. The dragonfly doji pattern doesn’t occur frequently, but when it does it is a warning sign that the trend may change direction. Following a price advance, the dragonfly’s long lower shadow shows that sellers were able to take control for at least part of the period. While the price ended up closing unchanged, the increase in selling pressure during the period is a warning sign. While both patterns represent indecision, the location of the dragonfly doji at the end of a downtrend or at a support level may offer a bullish reversal cue. If the security is considered to be oversold, which may require the assistance of additional technical indicators, a bull movement may follow in the days ahead. This may be a chance for additional entry points, especially if the market has a higher open on the following day. Another disadvantage is the potential unreliability of the dragonfly doji as a sole trading signal. While this pattern can signal potential price reversals, it’s not always a reliable indicator on its own. Also called as a sign of strength as buying pressure that overcomes the selling pressure. You can trade both Dragonfly and Gravestone Doji in a range or trending markets. The Dragonfly candle works well when used in conjunction with other indicators and has high volume. Both the dragonfly doji and the gravestone doji have almost no difference between the opening and closing prices, resulting in little to nobody on the candlestick. Despite the lack of a body, both patterns signal that a significant price range appeared during their formation. This pattern effectively signaled a reversal that was further

He was replaced by housing minister Dominic Raab as Brexit secretary. He was replaced by health and social care minister Stephen Barclay the following day. The negotiating period also led Britain’s political parties to face their own crises. Lawmakers left both the Conservative and Labour parties in protest. There were allegations of antisemitism in the Labour Party, and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn was criticized for his handling of the issue. I’m round this guy’s house on a Saturday night when all of his mates are next door partying, out of my mind on painkillers asking him about his dead brother, while he’s also out of his mind. There is a beat- up old Ford truck in the drive with a postcard of the Virgin Mary on the dashboard. We learn later that his brother – Brad Hinds, the hunter who inspired the album title – bagged it. In the winter of 1999, cult sludge unit Today Is The Day toured Europe supporting Neurosis and Voivod. On returning, TITD drummer Brann Dailor and guitarist Bill Kelliher quit the group but were enthused by the intensity of the tour and determined not to lose any of the momentum they had built up. UK and EU look to 2025 for reset, but with little room for trade-offs The TCA includes an agreement on extradition, but this does not replicate the arrangements of the European Arrest Warrant, although it is better than some had feared. The EU had initially wanted the UK to https://www.forex-world.net/ sign up to its rules on managing subsidies, but quickly abandoned this position in negotiations. More broadly, it wanted the ability to retaliate autonomously in response to any perceived disruption of the level playing field. Decisions are still to be made on data sharing and on financial services, and the agreement on fishing only lasts five years. Sky News Services However, as we’ve already pointed out, there’s no evidence that Ms Badenoch said this. In fact in the latest referral-to-treatment (RTT) data, which covers the end of September 2024, there were about 6.3 million people on the waiting list. When we asked the Ministry of Justice, it told us there is no universally agreed definition of a Backtesting conviction, but that FPNs are ‘out of court disposals’. Official statistics published by the Ministry of Justice do not appear to include Fixed Penalty Notices in their count of the number of convictions. It is true, as was widely reported in the wake of Mr Starmer’s comments last week, that FPNs are not classed as criminal convictions. During that time nothing changed and the UK continued to comply with all EU laws and rules. Many in the press speculated that the government could take a softer line. The section on security cooperation that London had wanted to change is also intact. The Good Friday Agreement assures an open border with the Republic of Ireland, meaning Northern Ireland remains in the EU single market, which puts a customs border with the UK essentially in the Irish Sea. That means the whole of the UK will be able to strike its own trade deals with non-EU countries as well as with the EU – although this could take some time. It also sets out conditions to ensure a level playing field and the processes for resolving disputes between the UK and the EU. It has published a series of guides – which cover everything from mobile roaming on holiday to the impact on electricity supplies. After years of negotiating, a deal was finally agreed upon on Christmas Eve. Also agreed to exchange information to combat customs and VAT fraud. Nothing similar was formally proposed by Theresa May’s government. Keir Starmer first UK PM to join EU meeting since Brexit The full complicated agreement is more than 1,200 pages long, but here are some of the key points. The issue was further complicated by the Tories’ choice of the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party as a coalition partner. The party opposed the Good Friday Agreement and, unlike the Conservative leader at the time, campaigned for Brexit. Also received funding from EU programs during the transition period and a share of its assets at the end of it, which included the capital it paid to the European Investment Bank (EIB). One of the most politically thorny issues faced by Brexit negotiators was the rights of EU citizens living in the U.K. Britain’s lead negotiator in the talks with Brussels was David Davis. He was a Yorkshire member of Parliament (MP) until July 9, 2018, when he resigned. The Starmer government’s EU policy Services are a major component of Britain’s international trade; the country enjoys a trade surplus in that segment, which is not the case for goods. David Davis expressed interest in the Norway model in response to a question he received at the U.S. “It’s something we’ve thought about, but it’s not at the top of our list,” he said. He was referring specifically to the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which, like the EEA, offers access to the single market but not the activtrades review customs union. In May 2016, the State Bank of India, India’s largest commercial bank, suggested that Brexit would benefit India economically. No longer had unfettered access to Europe’s single market, it would allow for more focus on trade with India. In the meantime the EU has agreed to a “specified period” of four months, extendable by a further two months, in which data can be exchanged in the same way it is now, as long as the UK makes no changes to its rules on data protection. The UK got the ‘Canada-style’ free trade agreement that Boris Johnson’s government had always said that it wanted. The negative impact comes from so-called “non-tariff barriers” – time consuming and sometimes complicated new paperwork that businesses have to fill out when importing and exporting to the EU. Several politicians and journalists have confused this data with figures for cases, which are higher because some patients await treatment

Mądrze zaplanowana inwestycja umożliwia osiąganie celów finansowych przy odpowiednim poziomie ryzyka. Dowiedz się, jak samodzielnie zbudować portfel inwestycyjny. Masz prawo żądać, by Twoje dane osobowe podane przy rejestracji w serwisie zostały Ci przez nas wydane w ustrukturyzowanym, nadającym się do odczytu maszynowego i powszechnie używanym formacie. Te dane przetwarzamy po to, abyśmy mogli wywiązać się z zawartej z Tobą umowy o świadczenie usług, gdy korzystasz z serwisu Obligacje.pl i decydujesz się na korzystanie z takich usług. W Polsce trudno jednak zbudować dobrze zdywersyfikowany portfel jedynie na postawie ofert publicznych obligacji, bo nasz rynek jest zdominowany przez deweloperów (notujących rekordowe marże) i windykatorów (korzystających z dobrej kondycji finansowej gospodarstw domowych). Uzupełnienie portfela inwestycji stanowiły również  rządowe papiery skarbowe. Fundusz IPOPEMA Obligacji Korporacyjnych wypracował stopę zwrotu wynoszącą 4,03% w ciągu ostatnich 12 miesięcy – najwyższą stopę Indeks trendów zatrudnienia USA wzrasta do 110,97 punktów we wrześniu zwrotu w grupie porównawczej polskich funduszy dłużnych korporacyjnych publikowanych przez Analizy Online. Kupując jednostki uczestnictwa funduszu eliminujemy wszystkie wyżej wymienione trudności – zdajemy się na wiedzę i doświadczenie zarządzającego portfelem. My mamy i chcemy mieć dług wyselekcjonowanych deweloperów w portfelu. Jednak w poprzednim roku podjęliśmy decyzję o skróceniu tego portfela i skoncentrowaniu się na obligacjach krótkoterminowych,, celem uniknięcia cyklu koniunkturalnego w tej branży. Z dzisiejszej perspektywy wydaje nam się, że problemy mogą mieć ci deweloperzy, którzy zbyt mocno oparli swój rozwój na emisji obligacji czy kredycie bankowym. W dzisiejszej rzeczywistości płynność finansowa i poziom zadłużenia to kluczowe parametry. Ryzykiem, który obserwujemy i który może w średnim terminie wpłynąć na kondycję całej branży, jest zaostrzenie polityki kredytowej banków komercyjnych. Jeżeli ta sytuacja utrzyma się w długim terminie, to może to uderzyć w biznes deweloperski. Nasze przedsiębiorstwa musiały więc działać w niezwykle trudnych warunkach, jednak wyszły z tego obronną ręką. Wprawdzie przejście przez sytuację kryzysową ułatwiło im wsparcie rządowe oraz banku centralnego, to jednak polskie firmy pokazały, że potrafią dużo znieść. Prosto na Twojego maila będziemy wysyłać skrót najważniejszych informacji ze świata finansów, powiadomienia o nowościach rynkowych, najnowsze oceny i raporty oraz codzienne notowania wybranych przez Ciebie funduszy inwestycyjnych. Dla porównania, według portalu Analizy.pl, średnia 12-miesięczna stopa zwrotu w styczniu 2025 r. Dla funduszy inwestujących w polski dług korporacyjny oraz 5,1 proc. Stopy zwrotu uwzględniają koszty takie jak opłata za zarządzanie czy success fee, poza opłatą dystrybucyjną i opłatą za konwersję/zamianę. Oferują wyższe oprocentowanie niż uwielbiane przez Polaków obligacje detaliczne Skarbu Państwa, ale z drugiej strony wiążą się z nieco większym ryzykiem. Wysokie napływy do funduszy obligacji korporacyjnych. W minionym roku inwestorzy wpłacili do nich netto 4,8 mld zł, a aktywa tam zgromadzone wzrosły do ponad 15 mld zł na koniec roku (wzrost byłby większy, gdyby nie reklasyfikacja jednego z funduszy). Jednostki uczestnictwa w funduszach tego typu pozwalają na odpowiednią dywersyfikację, a to jest bolączką inwestorów, którzy chcą samodzielnie budować portfel. Jakie oprocentowanie można było uzyskać, biorąc pod uwagę publiczne oferty obligacji korporacyjnych w 2024 r.? Rozpiętość była całkiem spora i w zależności do wielkości emitenta, jego sytuacji finansowej i zadłużenia, terminu zapadalności obligacji i postrzeganego ryzyka marże ponad WIBOR wynosiły od około 2,7 pkt proc. Firmy przeprowadziły w Polsce 44 publiczne emisje opiewające na 1,96 mld zł. Inwestorzy w tych emisjach złożyli zapisy na kwotę ponad dwukrotnie wyższą, czyli 4,45 mld zł, a średni poziom redukcji w ujęciu rocznym wyniósł prawie 44 proc. — wynika z danych Domu Maklerskiego Michael Ström. Zaznacza, że zamiast tego lepszym rozwiązaniem mogłoby być nabywanie papierów spółek giełdowych, które od lat są obecne na rynku i pozyskują kapitał zarówno od inwestorów detalicznych, jak i instytucjonalnych. Podstawowym ryzykiem bezpośredniej inwestycji w obligacje korporacyjne jest ryzyko kredytowe emitenta (czyli jego zdolność do obsługi zadłużenia i zwrotu kapitału). To prawda, aktualnie koncentrujemy się na polskim rynku, co nie oznacza, że subfundusz nie ma możliwości dokonywania lokat w obligacje zagranicznych emitentów. W statucie subfunduszu Ipopema SFIO Obligacji Korporacyjnych znajdziemy zapis mówiący o tym, że co najmniej 80% wartości aktywów netto będą stanowić instrumenty dłużne nieskarbowe, w tym maksymalnie 35% mogą stanowić aktywa zagraniczne. Obecnie w portfelu mamy tylko niewielkie pozycje emitentów krajowych denominowane w walucie obcej. Środki zainwestowane w tytuły uczestnictwa nie są objęte ustawowym systemem gwarantowania. Udostępnia na stronie internetowej , a także dostępne są na stronach internetowych towarzystw funduszy inwestycyjnych. Wskazuje, że informacje o instrumentach finansowych i ryzyku z nimi związanym znajdują się w części “Ogólny opis istoty instrumentów finansowych oraz ryzyka związanego z inwestowaniem w instrumenty finansowe” Materiałów informacyjnych MiFID. Ipopema Obligacji Korporacyjnych lokuje od 80% do 100% kapitału w dłużnych papierach wartościowych emitowanych przez przedsiębiorstwa. Depozyty i instrumenty dłużne emitowane przez jednostki samorządu terytorialnego mogą stanowić do 34% wartości aktywów funduszu. Zaangażowanie w listy zastawne emitowane przez krajowe banki hipoteczne wynosi do 25% portfela. Do 34% mogą stanowić depozyty oraz instrumenty dłużne emitowane przez jednostki samorządu terytorialnego. Inwestycje w fundusze dłużne stanowią maksymalnie 20% aktywów. Aktywa zagraniczne oraz denominowane Więcej mieszanych danych o gospodarce USA – Wiadomości handlowe na żywo w walutach obcych mogą stanowić do 35%. Należy liczyć się z możliwością utraty przynajmniej części wpłaconych środków (§ 9 ust 2 – Rozporządzenia MF w sprawie trybu i warunków postępowania firm inwestycyjnych, banków, o których mowa w art. 70 ust. 2 ustawy o obrocie instrumentami finansowymi oraz banków powierniczych). Minimalny okres inwestowania nie gwarantuje uzyskania zakładanego rezultatu. Rynek publicznych (czyli kierowanych Koniec wydania czerwca i PCE do więcej niż 149 inwestorów) obligacji korporacyjnych jest dużo mniejszy niż skarbowych.

Indices trading offers diversification, allowing you to gain exposure to broad market movements rather than individual assets. If you decide to trade indices with our products, please note that all leveraged derivatives are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly. Before trading, you should always consider whether you understand how the instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The DAX 40, short for Deutscher Aktienindex, is the primary stock index in Germany and a key benchmark for the country’s equity market. It comprises the top 30 companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, representing a diverse range of sectors and industries. The index value is calculated by summing up the prices or market capitalizations of all constituent stocks and then dividing by a divisor. The methodology for calculating an index can be more complex for indices that track specific sectors, regions, or asset classes. Different indices have different rules and methodologies, so you should have a good understanding of how a particular index is calculated when using it for trading or investment purposes. Stock splits, mergers, acquisitions, and delistings can change the composition of stock indices. For indices tracking commodity markets, changes in commodity prices can have a direct impact. For instance, rising oil prices can influence indices like the Dow Jones Transportation Average. These are usually chosen based on factors like market capitalization, liquidity, and sector representation. The VIX is a real-time index representing market expectations for volatility in the S&P 500. Known as the Wall Street “fear gauge”, it is derived from the price of index options over the next 30 days. Let’s dive into the definition, meaning, and how to trade indices in a simple and easy-to-understand way. Leveraged trading involves borrowing a sum of money, usually from a broker, that effectively finances the trader and lets them buy and sell trading instruments. CFDs and Spread Bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The Nikkei 225 is Japan’s most well-known stock index, encompassing 225 major companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Learn all about trading with Vantage Academy and get the latest financial news plus in-depth market analysis. For options CFDs, select to buy or sell a call or put at your preferred strike price and expiry date, and set the number of CFDs you’d like to trade. Alternatively, you can also opt to trade or invest in an index-tracking ETF or shares of companies that are included in your chosen stock index. They will reflect the prices of all the underlying assets and may be equally weighted or biased towards larger stocks. Before trading, you should always consider whether you understand how the instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The methodology for calculating an index can be more complex for indices that track specific sectors, regions, or asset classes. See to it that the platform offers all the tools and resources available for research and analysis like Encore Capitals. Recognising market trends is essential for making informed trading decisions. This precision is often observed during the New York open, where the market reacts to overnight news, economic data, and the initial orders placed by institutional traders. Antonio Di Giacomo studied at the Bessières School of Accounting in Paris, France, as well as at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM). He has experience in technical analysis of financial markets, focusing on price action and fundamental analysis. After many years in the financial markets, he now prefers to share his knowledge with future traders and explain this excellent business to them. ETFs are funds that track the performance of an index but trade on the stock exchange like a regular stock. They’re ideal for traders looking for a more stable, long-term investment in an index. Index trading with CFDs Other indices, such as US Wall Street 30 (Dow Jones) are weighted by price, with the higher-priced stocks appearing closer to the top and, again, having a larger impact on the index value. Major indices like the US 500, US Wall Street 30, or UK 100 (FTSE 100) are highly liquid, meaning there is a high volume of trading activity. This liquidity makes it easier to enter and exit positions at desired prices. The total value of the trade is £7,500, but you’ll only have to put down £375 (5%) as margin. What Is Indices Trading? The measures, which are set to go into effect in April, are “swift and proportionate,” the EU said in a statement. America’s response to Europe’s response to America’s tariffs in the span of 36 hours shows how trade wars can quickly spiral out of control. After Trump’s 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel went into effect at midnight Wednesday morning, the EU immediately retaliated against what it called an “unjustified” trade action from the Trump administration. While they behave like a real financial market, their price movements are created from the use of randomly generated numbers via a secure computer broker. Index futures are contracts that allow you to buy or sell an index at a set price at a future date. They’re popular among traders who want to speculate on the longer-term direction of an index. This type of trading has grown in popularity because it offers exposure to a wider market, instead of relying on the performance of individual stocks. You can trade an index by taking a position on the price of the underlying market through a derivative such as a CFD or spread bet. After you’ve opened a brokerage account, you’ll decide what index to trade. Trading Indexes vs Forex Positive sentiment can lead to buying, while fear or uncertainty can drive selling. Daily trading volume for the Nifty 50 is typically substantial, with volumes often ranging from 200 to 300 million shares. Daily trading volume for the Nikkei 225 is typically

Goto also said that gradual strength in the yen could slow cost-push inflation and would improve real wages among domestic residents. This would help shift the GDP contribution from foreign spending to domestic spending. Indeed, inbound tourism contributed half of Japan’s full-year GDP growth rate of 1.5% in 2023, and 0.4 percentage points to Japan’s 0.1% annual GDP growth last year, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute. As maturities lengthen, there is a steady increase in forward rates, hitting 3.35% at the end of the 30-year horizon, versus 3.41% last week. But in Japan, the 100-yen stores actually have some high-quality, durable products for a great value. When broken down monthly, that’s a median salary of roughly 291,000 yen (or ~$2,050 USD) per month. In a recent post on SeekingAlpha, we pointed out that a forecast of “heads” or “tails” in a coin flip leaves out critical information. What is the median estimate for the number of Japanese yen per euro for calendar year 2020? A) 126.. The cost of living in Japan is about 4% lower than in the United States on average. Again, keep in mind that the cost of living in Japan is very similar to the U.S. on average (more on that below). So just think about how these Japanese salary numbers would apply to the U.S. However, as of mid-2023, $1 USD is worth around 140 yen, not just 100 yen. For more on this topic, see the analysis of government bond yields in 14 countries through  January 31, 2025 given in the appendix. “The measures announced over the weekend to boost consumption also include supporting higher wage growth and stimulating Chinese asset markets. This may trigger an increase in Chinese outbound tourism,” she added. Yujiro Goto, head of FX strategy for Japan at Nomura, told CNBC that weaker inbound tourism would be a negative for Japan’s GDP growth. After currency conversion, the cost of living in Japan is similar to the U.S. This means you can just convert JPY to USD for a sense of the purchasing power. The chart below shows the same probabilities for the 10-year JGB yield derived as part of the same simulation. In a recent post on SeekingAlpha, we pointed out that a forecast of “heads” or “tails” in a coin flip leaves out critical information. What a sophisticated bettor needs to know is that, on average for a fair coin, the probability of heads is 50%. A forecast that the next coin flip will be “heads” is literally worth nothing to investors because the outcome is purely random. Mastercard’s Mann said that the contribution from domestic consumption in Japan is expected to improve, given the strong labor market and the increase in wages. Higher domestic inflation has prompted the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, in contrast to other major central banks that are lowering rates. That, in turn, has triggered the yen to strengthen to a five-month high against the U.S. dollar on March 11. This default probability analysis is updated weekly based on the JGB yield simulation described in the next section. Converting Yen to USD Daily government bond yields from the 14 countries listed above form the base historical data for fitting the number of yield curve factors and their volatility. We showed in a recent post on SeekingAlpha that, on average, investors have almost always done better by buying long term bonds than by rolling over short term Treasury bills in the United States. That means that market participants have generally (but not always) been accurate in forecasting future inflation and adding a risk premium to that forecast. This study is being updated using the 14-country data set in coming weeks. Many economists have concluded that a downward sloping yield curve is an important indicator of future recessions. The next graph describes forex vs stocks the probability of negative 3-month bill rates for all but the first 3 months of the next 3 decades. The value of the Japanese yen has fallen relative to the US dollar in recent years. So much so that, according to Japan’s tourism organization, the country saw a record 36.9 million visitor arrivals for the whole of 2024. Tourists have been a key driver of the resurgence of the Japanese economy. Many have been attracted by weakness in the yen, which has made shopping, entertainment, transport and overnight stays cheaper. Cost of Living in Japan Those numbers are an annual income of at least 30 million yen (roughly $212,000 USD), and a total net worth of at least 100 million yen (roughly $707,000 USD). Using a maximum smoothness forward rate approach, Friday’s implied forward rate curve shows 1-month rates at an initial level of 0.35%, compared to 0.33% last week. It marks a dramatic change in the make-up of the world’s fourth-largest economy. So just think about how these Japanese salary numbers would apply to the U.S. A forecast that the next coin flip will be “heads” is literally worth nothing to investors because the outcome is purely random. The probability of negative rates peaks at 25.7%, versus 26.3% last week, in the period ending February 28, 2031 and stays elevated at or above 10% thereafter. We start from the closing JGB yield curve published daily by the Japan Ministry of Finance and other information sources. Using a maximum smoothness forward rate approach, Friday’s implied forward rate curve shows 1-month rates at an initial level of 0.35%, compared to 0.33% last week. As maturities lengthen, there is a steady increase in forward rates, hitting 3.35% at the end of the 30-year horizon, versus 3.41% last week. This is because yen weakness has been one of the key reasons for the acceleration of inbound tourism. A substantial appreciation in the currency is then expected to reverse this trend. It marks a dramatic change in the make-up of the world’s fourth-largest economy. As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and